CEEMEA Blog: Türkiye (CBT): Wait-and-see mode continues as expected

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Blog: Türkiye (CBT): Wait-and-see mode continues as expected

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Europe Strategy Date

Turkiye 11 June 2026

CEEMEA Blog

Türkiye (CBT): Wait-and-see mode

continues as expected

Yigit Onay

Decision. In line with our expectations, the CBT kept its policy stance unchanged,

Economist

leaving the policy rate at 37%, with the interest rate corridor maintained at 35.5% +44-20-75410227

and 40%. Despite still-elevated external uncertainties, a combination of easing oil

prices from their April–May peaks, low domestic dollarisation, signs that the

inflationary impact of recent geopolitical tensions is fading and relatively more

constructive inflation expectations for June, and a weakening growth backdrop

appears to have supported the decision to remain in a wait-and-see mode.

Market expectations were split ahead of the meeting, though skewed towards a

hold in Bloomberg terminal (18 vs 4), with a minority calling for a hike in 1w repo rate

to 40% alongside normalization of the funding mix via reopening of one-week repo

auctions.

MPC Statement. The statement was broadly in line with our expectations—slightly

more constructive relative to April, but still cautious overall. On inflation, the

Committee adopted a moderately positive tone, highlighting some improvement in

underlying dynamics: “The underlying trend of inflation… decreased slightly in

May” after the April uptick driven partly by energy prices. That said, despite market

expectations for a more favourable June print, the Committee refrained from

providing forward-looking reassurance, likely to avoid an overly dovish

interpretation.

On activity, the CBT continued to emphasize weakening domestic demand

conditions, noting that “first quarter data point to a slowdown… and leading