Ain Holdings (9627): Raise to Neutral: N-T risk receding, M-T DP margin will be the key for bull switch

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Ain Holdings (9627): Raise to Neutral: N-T risk receding, M-T DP margin will be the key for bull switch

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Ain Holdings (9627)

Raise to Neutral: N-T risk receding, M-T DP

margin will be the key for bull switch

Rating Change: NEUTRAL | PO: 6,500 JPY | Price: 5,870 JPY

09 June 2026

Cut PO to ¥6,500 Equity

We raise our investment rating to Neutral from Underperform to reflect the steep share

price decline since February and our view that FY4/27 profit will likely increase 12% YoY,

in line with consensus. We made minor adjustments to our forecasts. We continue to Key Changes

base our PO on an SOTP model, but lower our EV/EBITDA assumption for the retail (¥) Previous Current

business from 5.6x to 5.1x (a 20% discount to the 6.4x average of specialty retailers Inv. Opinion B-3-7 B-2-7

excluding Ryohin Keikaku and Nitori; Pal, a close peer, trades at 5.1x). Our revised PO Inv. Rating UNDERPERFORM NEUTRAL

implies a P/E of 14x FY4/27 earnings. Near-term risks recede on M&A synergies Price Obj. 6,600.00 6,500.00

2027E Rev (m) 721,100.0 717,400.0

Earnings to grow 12% in FY4/27 on M&A synergies 2028E Rev (m) 781,800.0 773,600.0

Ain is scheduled to announce FY4/26 earnings results on June 11, where management 2026E EPS 487.96 491.95

will likely highlight lower personnel costs following the Sakura Pharmacy acquisition and 2027E EPS 475.66 478.51

increased acquisition of technical fees. We expect FY4/27 OP guidance to be about 2028E EPS 518.38 509.84

¥34bn if a recovery in the retail business is factored in, or ¥33–33.5bn if guidance is 2026E EBITDA (m) 53,667.0 53,867.0

conservative (versus ¥33.4bn consensus). We anticipate a mildly positive share price 2027E EBITDA (m) 59,800.0 59,900.0

reaction to the earnings results. 2028E EBITDA (m) 62,100.0 61,600.0