HPC Promos Boost Volume While Food Remains Subdued In L2W Ending 5/30

Research evidence excerpt

HPC Promos Boost Volume While Food Remains Subdued In L2W Ending 5/30

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 9, 2026

■Food: Food Producers HPC Promos Boost Volume While Food

■Household & Personal Care

Remains Subdued In L2W Ending 5/30

Robert Moskow THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1474

Big Food declined -0.7% in the L2W ending May 30 compared to -0.4% YTD. Big HPC grew

robert.moskow@tdsecurities.com

2.1% in the L2W, in-line with YTD. We believe cutbacks to SNAP subsidies and slowly rising food

Sergio Matsumoto prices contributed to consumers’ cautious spending patterns.

646 562 1339

sergio.matsumoto@tdsecurities.com

Note: Easter 2025 was on April 20th. Easter 2026 was on April 5th. Our data includes the

Jacob Henry, CFA Amazon 1P, Costco, and Pet Retail channels.

646 562 1380

Food: Pricing Proves Un-Linearjacob.henry@tdsecurities.com

Victor Ma With costs rising higher and volume remaining pressured, Big Food companies will need

646 562 1306 stronger price realization to offset their costs. However, Big Food pricing decelerating to 1.8%

victor.ma2@tdsecurities.com in L2W, down from 2.8% YTD, perhaps due to heightened promotions during Memorial Day

weekend. KHC and GIS had the biggest declines. MDLZ and SJM had the strongest growth. We

Seamus Cassidy

expect MKC, SJM, and GIS to miss near-term consensus sales expectations.646 562 1319

seamus.cassidy@tdsecurities.com HPC: Sales Growth Improves, But 2-Year CAGR Decelerates

Big HPC’s sales growth improved sequentially in L2W, but the 2-year CAGR decelerated to

1.3% compared to 2.2% YTD. P&G and CLX improved the most, albeit relatively stable on a 2-

year CAGR. UL's deceleration continued. Pricing across the group dipped negative in the L2W

due to heightened promotional discounting, especially CLX.