THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY (+) : F4Q26 Quick Take - Results and Guidance Should Boost the Shares

Research evidence excerpt

THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY (+) : F4Q26 Quick Take - Results and Guidance Should Boost the Shares

EQUITIES

FOOD & HPC

THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY OUTPERFORMPRICE* USD101.8  TARGET PRICE USD120 (UPSIDE 18%)

FLASH NOTE

F4Q26 Quick Take – Results and Guidance Should Boost the Shares

9 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 13:19* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Max Gumport BNP Paribas Securities Corp (1) (+1) 917 583 4529 max.gumport@us.bnpparibas.com

1st Take

We believe SJM’s shares should be up meaningfully on the open as the company delivered better-than-expected results

and offered guidance for FY27 adjusted EPS that is above our sense of the buy-side bar.

With regard to results, the market was braced for SJM to deliver a top-line miss given recent scanner data. Instead,

SJM delivered a top-line beat, albeit driven primarily by the Sweet Baked Snacks segment where the company had

steered reported sales estimates to be down -low-teens YOY. Perhaps more important, the company also posted a

meaningful beat on adjusted EPS. That said, we would acknowledge lower than expected SG&A played a meaningful

role in the beat and that the company called out lower marketing spend YOY across the four U.S. segments.

For the past year, SJM has indicated that it expects to deliver on-algorithm or potentially better adjusted EPS growth in

FY27. While we believe the market initially anticipated roughly +mid-teens YOY EPS growth, expectations have come

down more recently as the macroeconomic backdrop has grown more uncertain and the company has emphasized

reinvestment in its communications. As such, our sense for the buy-side bar heading into today was +6-11% YOY off

a $9.00 base. Instead, the company is guiding to +7-12% YOY off a $9.15 base.