Prudence Usually Wins

Research evidence excerpt

Prudence Usually Wins

June 9, 2026 J.M. Smucker Company

(SJM, Buy, $130 PT)

Robert Dickerson

Prudence Usually Wins rdickerson@btig.comCONSUMER Hannah Lascher WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Not every food company can speak to cost deflation, hlascher@btig.com

fundamental profit/EPS growth, ongoing deleverage, and strong FCF generation. Company Data

Smucker checks all those boxes, while trading at a 9% FCF yield and a ~20% P/E

valuation discount relative to its 10-year average. The "prudent" FY'27 guide proved Closing Price $101.77

Price Target $130.00STAPLES that fundamentals should keep improving through the year, all while upside potential

still exists. Our FY'27/FY'28 EPS forecasts remain unchanged. Our $130 price target Market Cap (M) $10,879.21

implies another ~20% upside over the NTM; reiterate Buy. Enterprise Value (M) $18,261.05

■ Playing it prudently early in the year. Headed into Q4 results, many were Shares Out (M) 106.90EQUITY concerned that softer revenues and heightened overall cost inflation this fiscal Avg Daily Vol-3 Months (M) 1.87

year would pressure the FY'27 guide, driving sell-side revisions down. The midpoint Dividend / Yield $4.40 / 4.3%

of the EPS guide is almost 2% ahead of consensus, all while we still believe Revisions

management has left some wiggle room for upside potential, just as we stated

in our June 4th note Fighting Oil with Coffee. Investor questions around the Previous Current

down 3%-4% net sales guidance started early today, as lower coffee pass-through Rating Buy BuyRESEARCH pricing usually leads to a positive volume recovery. Management answered those Price Target $120.00 $130.00

questions by saying it's simply being prudent this early in the year. In our view, FY27E REV 9,064.55 8,743.37