US nonfarm payroll (May 2026): hiring may be picking up

Research evidence excerpt

US nonfarm payroll (May 2026): hiring may be picking up

8 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Economic Comment

Both key surveys on uptrend; unemployment, wage growth key to rate hike decision

Private-sector nonfarm payroll employment was up 172,000 MoM in May,Chief Economist:

narrowly lagging the 179,000 increase in April but nonetheless remaining onShunsuke Kobayashi

an uptrend and topping the market estimate (88,000 increase; see Figure 1).+81 3 6202 8222

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com The combined figure for March and April was revised up by 93,000.

The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the labor force participation rate was

61.8%, and the average workweek was 34.3 hours, all flat MoM and in line

with the market estimate. The average hourly wage was up 0.3% MoM (up

0.2% in April) and up 3.4% YoY (up 3.6%), in line with the market estimate (up

0.3% MoM, up 3.4% YoY).

The announced data suggest that labor demand is strengthening overall.

Employment continues to be driven by labor-intensive industries, which has

resulted in low and stable growth in average hourly earnings. It is worth noting

that the number of people employed has started to increase in economically

sensitive industries. In addition, former federal employees who were dismissed

by the Department of Government Energy (DOGE) in 2025 (especially in

October) appear to be returning to work.

With inflation remaining stubbornly high, the Fed’s next move will probably be

to hike interest rates if labor market conditions remain basically unchanged

from those shown in the May jobs data. In particular, with the rate of increase

in the core PCE deflator accelerating (basically signifying accelerated growth