Agribusiness: Because You Asked: What If We Have a Super El Niño This Year?

Research evidence excerpt

Agribusiness: Because You Asked: What If We Have a Super El Niño This Year?

Foundation

June 11, 2026 09:19 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MAgribusiness | Latin America Julia Rizzo

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Because You Asked: What If We Julia.Rizzo@morganstanley.comJulia Habermann +55 11 3048-6114

Research Associate

Julia.Habermann.Oliveira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6096

Have a Super El Niño This Year?

LatAm Agribusiness

Latin America

NOAA has confirmed an El Niño for this year & raised the Industry View In-Line

probability of a very strong event to 63%. It could rank among

the strongest El Niños ever, with especially large implications for Exhibit 3 : The event is still in its early stages,

commodities, inflation, growth, FX, equities & regional but forecasters broadly expect conditions to

economies. We take a first look at what may be ahead. worsen materially through late 2026.

Segment Implication Investor Takeaway

Ag (Softs) Analogueswith more mixedpoint tocoffeetighterdynamics.sugar/palm supply (dryness), Bullishpath-dependent.softs skew, led by sugar/palm; coffee more

for sugar prices. India is world’s 2nd largestKey Takeaways India Monsoon Downside rainfall risk; tighter supply. Supportsugar producer.

to already elevated food inflation (supply + tariff Upward pressure on grocery prices into 2027. NOAA's probability of a very strong El Nino during Nov-Jan has increased Food Addsbackdrop).

significantly, to 63% (from 37%); it could rank among the strongest such events Fishing (Peru) Warming waters disrupting anchovy harvest. Fishmeal supply risk, feeds into livestock costs.

of renewed water constraints; contingency Tail risk to trade flows/freight costs. ever. Shipping (Panama Canal) Riskplanning underway.