Podcast | Europe for the Global Investor: Europe’s Alpha Opportunity: Semis, Banks and the Next Trade

Research evidence excerpt

Podcast | Europe for the Global Investor: Europe’s Alpha Opportunity: Semis, Banks and the Next Trade

IdeaMValuation Methodology and Risks

ASM International NV (ASMI.AS)

We value ASMI at 34x FY27e earnings, broadly in-line with the company's 3-year average NTM

P/E multiple.

Risks to Upside

n Faster than expected ALD layer growth in the leading Foundry/Logic processes

n Higher than expected market share gains in Epitaxy (due to move to 2nm/GAA)

n Market share gains in the recovering Memory market

n Structurally higher margins

Risks to Downside

n Weaker acceleration of leading edge Logic/Foundry spending in '27

n Loss of market share to competition

n Cost pressures limiting margin uplift

BE Semiconductor Industries NV (BESI.AS)

We apply a 37x multiple to FY27 earnings power of €8 per share. The multiple sits slightly

ahead of the 5-year average P/E of 35x. We believe this is fair, given upside risk to hybrid

bonding forecasts and against a backdrop of elevated valuations across the sector.

n Faster adoption of hybrid bonding in HBM memory applications

n Faster and stronger acceleration of Besi's core business

n Higher multiple due to (perceived) structural elements

n Hybrid bonding adoption more limited than expected

n Strength in core business fades

n FX headwinds pressure margins

Siemens Energy AG (ENR1n.DE)

Our price target is the average of two valuation methods: 1) a 2028 SOTP approach in which

we benchmark Gas Services, Grid Technologies and Transformation of Industries against key

peers such as GE Vernova, Mitsubishi and Hitachi. Our derived EV value is an average of

applying 2028 EV/EBIT multiples (averaging out at 19.3x); and 2) a DCF valuation, assuming

an 7.8% WACC and 2% terminal growth rate.