European Metals & Mining Tracker: The Multiple Test

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker: The Multiple Test

Idea

June 11, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

The Multiple Test Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Aluminium's cycle-high margins, earning upgrades, and multiple Adahna Ekoku

scrutiny. EquityAdahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

Exhibit 1: Norsk Hydro's and Rio Tinto's primary aluminium margins have Research Associate

reached cycle highs Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

Norsk Hydro - Aluminium Metal Rio Tinto - Aluminium Primary Metal

Brian Morgan

2,500

Equity Analyst US$/t Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

2,000 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

1,500 Commodities Strategist

Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

Ben Kelson

1,000 Research Associate

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

500 Mining 101

Mining & Steel Equities

0 Mining Sector Valuation Long Term

Steel Sector Valuation Long Term Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21 Q1-22 Q3-22 Q1-23 Q3-23 Q1-24 Q3-24 Q1-25 Q3-25 Q1-26 Q3-26e

Commodity Price Signals

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates (e). Rio Tinto half-yearly data adjusted to quarters - 1Q26 remains Commodity Price Forecast

Morgan Stanley estimate assumed in line with 1H26 estimate.

Cycle-high margins vs supply response. An emerging debate for aluminium equities

is how long spot margins need to be sustained before a supply response

materialises. We see growing evidence of this response: the process to restart Norsk