Japan electronic components

Research evidence excerpt

Japan electronic components

Macquarie Equity Research Japan electronic components

MLCC sales forecasts

• We raise our MLCC sales forecasts and model MLCC sales CAGR of +18% over CY25-28E,

exceeding the +15% recorded in the previous cycle (CY17–21). Based on past cyclical trends,

we expect growth rates to slow through CY29-30; however, investment in data centres may

actually expand significantly during this period, which we think could serve as an upside

factor. Additionally, in the edge AI sector, while we factor in the impact of the automotive

sector (autonomous driving), we do not incorporate the expected increase in demand from

other areas such as AR/VR and robotics into our forecasts.

• We forecast CAGR by application through CY25-28 as follows: automotive at +7%,

smartphones at -6%, and other at +34%. Within the “other” category, we forecast +89%

sales growth for server applications.

Þ Automotive MLCCs was a major business segment, accounting for approximately

42% of total sales at its historical peak (CY23). However, as the pace of transition to

xEVs has slowed since then, its share of total sales has stalled at 39% as of CY25. From

CY26 onward, we expect the trends toward increased electrification (autonomous

driving) and electrification (xEVs) to resume, leading to an increase in the number of

MLCCs installed per vehicle. We forecast automotive MLCC sales CAGR of +7% through

CY25-28E.

Þ The share of smartphone-oriented MLCCs in the overall market has declined from 30%

in CY21 to 19% in CY25. Although the number of MLCC units per device is increasing

in high-end smartphones, sales are declining due to other negative factors. The lack of

growth in the overall global smartphone market (we project a 12% YoY decline in global