DQs and NCOs Generally Positive; Loan Growth Above EVR

Research evidence excerpt

DQs and NCOs Generally Positive; Loan Growth Above EVR

Flash Note Financials | Specialty Finance

June 09, 2026

Synchrony Financial John Pancari Girard Sweeney 212 497 0861 646 551 8503

SYF | $70.55 john.pancari@evercoreisi.com girard.sweeney@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $90.00 Russ Anderson

Commentary 212-497-0887

Russ.Anderson@evercoreisi.com

SYF's May card data overall positive; DQs and NCOs generally favorable, but pace of improvement moderating. 30+ day

DQs declined 10 bps MoM to 4.2% and were flat YoY. May marked four months of flat YoY change in DQs, indicative of credit

normalization. NCOs (adjusted for cycle day count) improved 43 bps YoY vs 48 bps in April — the pace of YoY improvement

continues to moderate but remains favorable YoY. EOP loans rose 180 bps YoY in May vs +141 bps in April, extending a steady

re-acceleration off the 1Q trough. We expect today’s data to be a modest positive given benign credit metrics and accelerating loan

growth, although broader credit continues to moderate to normalization.

Implied 2Q26 DQs screen below EVR, but essentially in line with Street. SYF's May 30+ day DQs totaled ~$4.3B or 4.2%, flat

YoY and down 10 bps MoM. Assuming historical seasonal trends, this implies 30+ day DQs of 4.25% for 2Q26, which screen below

EVR and essentially in line with consensus (-14 bps/-3 bps). The pace of improvement has been flat YoY for the last four months.

Implied 2Q26 NCOs screen below EVR & Street. SYF's May NCOs (adjusted for cycle day count) totaled $461M or 5.5%,

decreasing 43 bps YoY and decreasing 2 bps MoM. Assuming historical seasonal trends, May's data implies 2Q26 NCOs of 5.33%,

which screen below EVR/Street (-6 bps/-19 bps). The pace of YoY improvement continues to moderate, but monthly NCOs remain