Academy Sports and Outdoors: 1Q26 Review: Challenging Macro Limits Visibility

Research evidence excerpt

Academy Sports and Outdoors: 1Q26 Review: Challenging Macro Limits Visibility

Barclays | Academy Sports and Outdoors

program, supporting customer loyalty; 3) new store unit growth driving reliable topline growth

and comp benefit, as new store vintages comped +HSD in 1Q26; 4) market share opportunities

in core categories, aided by assortment expansion into work and western and continued

premium brand rollout (e.g., Nike Jordan); and 5) digital penetration and e-commerce

momentum. We believe these positives are fully offset by: 1) macro pressure, especially as

elevated gas prices weigh on the lower-income consumer; 2) increasing promotional intensity

across retail that could pressure near-term margins; 3) legacy store lagging performance; and 4)

still-negative sales to inventory spread. As such, we reiterate our EW rating. Following earnings

results reported on 6/9/26, ASO shares closed -2.5% vs. S&P500 -0.3%.

Tariff Exposure Update. 1Q26 GM declined ~70bps, driven by 110bps of tariff pressure, partially

offset by 20bps of favorable shrink and 10bps from favorable shipping costs. The company

expects 1Q26 to represent the largest tariff headwind for the year, with pressure subsiding as

FY26 progresses. The company monetized ~$10.5mn of its tariff refund receivable, which is

embedded in FY26 guidance alongside expected receipts from the portion not sold. No tariff

refunds were recognized in 1Q26, though refunds have begun to flow through in 2Q26. Guidance

for GM to inflect modestly positive in 2H26 primarily reflects the lapping of tariff-related

headwinds from prior periods.

Quarter in review. 1Q26 adj. EPS of $0.93 beat consensus of $0.92, driven by lower share count.

Sales of $1.44bn matched consensus, reflecting comp sales of +2.9% (vs. cons. of +2.7%), driven