Loaded F2Q: NBA Playoffs, World Cup, Father's Day, America's 250th

Research evidence excerpt

Loaded F2Q: NBA Playoffs, World Cup, Father's Day, America's 250th

USA | Hardlines

Academy Sports EquityJuneResearch9, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGELoaded F2Q: NBA Playoffs, World Cup, Father's

RATING BUYDay, America's 250th

PRICE $51.67^

Following a solid 1Q print, the key debate ASO remains unchanged: Can

management's playbook drive consecutive positive comps without dipping into PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $67.00 ($66.00) | +30%

higher promotions and compressing gross margin? In our view, we believe the 52W HIGH-LOW $62.45 - $41.29

confluence of initiatives, like loyalty and enhanced merchandising, combined FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 96.2% | 69.98

with external catalysts, like World Cup and America's 250th, can achieve that MARKET CAP $3.4B

result. Reiterate Buy. TICKER ASO ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

(+) Comp Traffic Declines Moderating. The +2.9% comp was largely ticket-driven, and we estimate

comp traffic declines moderated nearly 5 pts sequentially and on a two-year stack. On a total

FY (Jan) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

traffic basis, the higher-income cohort continued to lead at +MSD% trip growth, while lower-income

2026 2027 2026 2027

declines narrowed to down LSD%.

REV NM <-1% NM -1%

(+) World Cup First Whistle Approaching. Management's +30 bps expected comp lift from the EPS +4% +3% +6% +5%

World Cup appears to be tracking, with ASO strategically positioning merchandise at the front of

stores as excitement builds ahead of the opening match Thursday. We see potential for a broad- 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

based benefit across markets from merchandise, with particular upside in cities hosting matches. EPS 0.93 2.25 1.31 2.17 6.65

PREV 0.94 2.17 1.26 2.03 6.40

(+) Past the Peak of the Tariff Headwind.