China Technology: China's EV exports in April remain strong with Europe and Brazil being the largest destinations

Research evidence excerpt

China Technology: China's EV exports in April remain strong with Europe and Brazil being the largest destinations

as BYD and peers shift to local assembly and local production.

China Technology POSITIVE

Brazil is front-running the July tariff step-up and became the largest destination for Price Target USD 22.00

Chinese NEV exports. YTD, China has shipped ~245k NEVs to Brazil, +225% yoy, accounting for Price (09-Jun-26) USD 11.17

~15% of total export volume. We believe this was largely driven by BYD building inventory ahead Potential Upside/Downside +97.0%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

of the Jul. 1st tariff hike, as monthly exports from China to Brazil are running well beyond what

the Brazilian market can absorb in a given month. For example, China exported ~104k units to

Brazil in April, but the entire country registered only ~30.7k NEV sales during the month. NIO UNDERWEIGHT

Therefore, we foresee some volume pullback in 2H26 post the tariff deadline. At the same time, China Technology POSITIVE

as BYD is reportedly ramping up local production from mid-2026 and reaching full local Price Target USD 4.00

production by end-2026, we believe the likely decline in China’s export volume to Brazil will Price (09-Jun-26) USD 5.28

begin to decouple from actual demand for Chinese EVs in the country, as much of the demand Potential Upside/Downside -24.2%

will be met by locally produced vehicles.

Europe's resilience more than a year into tariffs is encouraging. Belgium, which handles the China Technology

world's largest automotive trans-shipment, serves as a useful proxy for EU demand, rebounded Jiong Shao, CFA

to a record 50.8k units in April (+53% mom, +102% yoy). The strength was broad across major +1 212 526 5562

jiong.shao@barclays.com

Barclays Capital Inc.