Nike Inc. "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 4Q Preview: We See a Slightly Negative..."

Research evidence excerpt

Nike Inc. "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 4Q Preview: We See a Slightly Negative..."

Powered by Lab Global9 JuneResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Nike Inc. Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: 4Q Preview: We See a

Slightly Negative Upside/Downside Skew Footwear

12-month rating Neutral *

12m price target US$50.00Nike's 30x P/E could be pressured on a potentially weak Q1 guidance update:

Prior : US$54.00

Our channel checks suggest Nike had lackluster global sales momentum through May.

We expect Nike to deliver a roughly in-line Q4 EPS and give an implied Q1 EPS outlook in Price (09 Jun 2026) US$44.65

the range of 32-44c, below the Street's 45c view. We expect Nike's 1Q outlook includes RIC: NKE.N BBG: NKE US

sales down -LSD% y/y, vs. UBS Q4 est. of -1.6%. However, our checks suggest trends in

Nike's EMEA business are weakening q/q. We see risk this drives Nike to take an Trading data and key metrics

incrementally conservative approach to its Q1 guide vs. its -LSD% CY26 sales growth 52-wk range US$79.24-41.88

outlook. This is why we see a slightly negative upside/downside skew over the event. Market cap. US$66.2b

Lastly, we don’t expect Nike to provide FY27 guidance given mgmt. noted it will issue FY Shares o/s 1,482m (COM)

and LT guides at its Fall investor day. The options market is pricing in an +/- 8.9% jump Free float 100%

over the event vs. a 6.6% historical avg. move. We agree with the options market's view. Avg. daily volume ('000) 4,314

Avg. daily value (m) US$199.1

Nike sentiment leans bearish, in our view: Common s/h equity (05/26E) US$12.5b

UBS Quant Team's crowding data shows Nike is short-crowded relative to peers and its P/BV (05/26E) 5.3x

history (Fig. 23-24). Plus, short interest has risen 70 bps since NKE reported Q3 EPS to Net debt to EBITDA (05/26E) NM