BASF SE "Deep Dive on BASF’s new Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China - what..."

Research evidence excerpt

BASF SE "Deep Dive on BASF’s new Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China - what..."

round the the resilience of the China supply chain, which has held up materially better UBS Cons.

than feared, with feedstock availability and recent disruptions having a more muted 12/26E 1.71 2.68

impact than expected. (4) 2030 expectations underpinned by demand not supply 12/27E 2.41 2.95

12/28E 2.89 3.54

rationalisation: Looking longer term, the 2030 earnings framework for the Zhanjiang

Verbund site (€4-5bn sales and €1.0-1.2bn EBITDA) is underpinned by Chinese demand, Priyanka Patel

with real chemical production growth expected of ~4% p.a. (driven by urbanisation and Analyst

rising middle-class), rather than relying on a meaningful near-term supply correction. priyanka.patel@ubs.com

Furthermore, management indicated it expects the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) to slow +44-20-7568 0016

incremental capacity, but that China is unlikely to see significant supply rationalisation in Charles Eden, ACA

the near term. Analyst

charles.eden@ubs.com

Zhanjiang site highlights technological direction of the industry +44-20-7568 9622

From an asset perspective, Zhanjiang represents a step-change in BASF’s competitive Christian Bell, CFA

positioning. The site combines large-scale integration with a highly flexible feedstock Analyst

setup (naphtha and butane), enabling optimisation versus peers, while its location in the christian.bell@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5493Guangdong provides proximity to some of China’s fastest-growing industrial end

markets. The complex is designed as a next-generation “Smart Verbund,” with a high

degree of digitalisation, AI-driven optimisation and extensive real-time operational data,

supporting both cost efficiency and operational reliability. In parallel, its sustainability