CSL Limited: China albumin: More downside risk likely ahead

Research evidence excerpt

CSL Limited: China albumin: More downside risk likely ahead

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CSL Limited

China albumin: More downside risk likely

ahead

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 130.00 AUD | Price: 97.91 AUD

Albumin challenges to continue 08 June 2026

In May 2026, CSL noted that the China albumin market continues to contract in value, Equity

weighing on 2H revenue. We expect this softness to persist into FY27. We reiterate our

Neutral rating for CSL. Despite trading inexpensively, we believe near-term headwinds

Key Changescould extend beyond albumin – including Vifor (see the report Not so ironclad on the iron

franchise challenges). We lower our CSL FY27/FY28 albumin growth estimates and (US$) Previous Current

Behring GM accordingly. PO unchanged at $130. 2027E Rev (m) 15,625.3 15,500.2

2028E Rev (m) 15,897.2 15,696.8

2027E EPS 6.45 6.29Downside risk to CSL prices

CSL’s albumin prices have fallen YTD to US$285/10g, broadly in line with global peers 2028E EPS 6.91 6.70

but still approximately 5% above the lowest priced local producer. We see downside risk

to CSL’s pricing should competitors converge towards Hualan’s levels, which appears to Lyanne Harrison >>

have established a floor at US$270/10g. Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Australia)

+61 2 9226 5028

lyanne.harrison@bofa.comClawing back lost market share

Given that China is CSL’s highest margin albumin market, we see scope for pricing Elizabeth Davies >> Research Analyst

flexibility to support volume growth, particularly as CSL seeks to recapture market share Merrill Lynch (Australia)

(down 120bps from 2024 to YTD 2026). Local players have been the key share gainers, +61 2 9226 5078 elizabeth.davies2@bofa.com

driven by more aggressive price cuts. CSL has highlighted that its partnership with local