CSL: Lowering forecasts for a more challenging Vifor outlook. Maintain SP rating

Research evidence excerpt

CSL: Lowering forecasts for a more challenging Vifor outlook. Maintain SP rating

.27 6.86

expecting a reduction in CSL Vifor's Injectafer/Ferrinject sales in FY27, Prev. 6.42 6.92 7.34 P/AEPS 11.2x 11.6x 11.9x 10.8x

American Regent's FY27 outlook for Venofer was much worse than we had

anticipated. All market data in AUD; all financial data in USD.

Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

Further pressure on Vifor gross margins. Our discussions with CSL

management confirmed the impact of generic competition on Vifor sales

is likely to lead to gross margin compression as lower realised prices

should flow straight through to profitability. We are forecasting Vifor's gross

margins compressing 357bps in FY26 and 215bps in FY27.

Uncertain medium term outlook given heightened competition across

all business units. CSL faces an unprecedented level of competition

with heightened competitor activity across all business units. The CSL

Behring business unit faces increased supply of plasma as its fractionator

competitors have increased manufacturing output, threats from FcRn

inhibitor products, and new HAE product launches. The CSL Seqirus

business unit faces high levels of competition as vaccine fatigue has shrunk

the market and manufacturers become more price competitive. The CSL

Vifor business unit faces increased competition from generics in its key iron

franchise.

Forecast changes. We have lowered our Vifor revenues, revised our

minority interest calculations, and adjusted our G&A expense assumptions.

This has led to net cc NPATA changes of -9.3% in FY27e and -6.6% in FY28e.

Disseminated: Jun 15, 2026 07:03EDT; Produced: Jun 15, 2026 07:03EDT

For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 8