Chartpack: Australia / New Zealand Macro - June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Chartpack: Australia / New Zealand Macro - June 2026

Policy Outlook

RBA

• After three consecutive RBA hikes, Governor Bullock has indicated the Board

now has “space” to assess risks on both sides. Domestic data since the June

meeting have likely reinforced this assessment, with April data showing a spike in

unemployment and trimmed mean inflation tracking slightly below RBA’s forecast for

Q2. Our base case remains for no change in rates through 2027. But the bar for further

hikes is lower than the bar for policy easing, and uncertainty about the Iran conflict will

likely remain the key driver of rate expectations over coming months. Whether the RBA

hikes rates again or not, rate cuts look a long way off right now. After the unique-

among-peers reversal of the policy easing delivered in 2025, RBA will require much

more definitive evidence of inflation consistent with the target before cutting rates again.

RBNZ

• Change in call: an 25bp insurance hike in July, on hold after that. The RBNZ’s May

policy decision to keep rates on hold rested entirely on the Governor’s casting vote. Out

of six voting members, three voted for a 25bp hike, and three to keep policy on hold

(including Governor Breman), with the even-split resolved in favour of no change by the

Governor’s casting vote. But all Committee members agreed that a higher OCR “at

upcoming meetings” would “likely be necessary”. As such, a 25bp hike at the next

meeting in now July seems most likely. But we remain of the view that domestic

conditions, and DB’s base case of an Iran resolution by the end of June, will mean

further hikes after that are unnecessary. So, we see a 25bp insurance hike to 2.5%, but

OCR to remain on hold after that until further tightening in Q1-27.

Deutsche Bank philip.odonaghoe@db.com