Europe Chart Of The Week: The quiet cost of Trump tariffs

Research evidence excerpt

Europe Chart Of The Week: The quiet cost of Trump tariffs

10 June 2026

Europe Chart Of The Week

Figure 1: US monthly European imports: a downshift, a Figure 2: Irish GDP mimics the movements of US-

dip, and a modest rebound since March bound exports

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, US Census Bureau Source: Deutsche Bank Research, US Census Bureau

Much of this Irish volatility can be linked directly to polypeptide exports – a key

ingredient for weight-loss drugs. As Figure 3 illustrates, Irish exports of the

hormone to the US have dropped to minimal levels recently. This follows two

distinct surges in 2025 (January-March and September), each indicative of front-

running of new tariff measures (Figure 3). The US is now arguably operating off

that accumulated inventory, and it may be some time before import demand

resumes. Pharmaceutical exports were the reason for the downgrade to Irish GDP

that pushed Euro area GDP growth into negative territory in Q1.

An uncertain path ahead. While EU exports to the US have bounced back to a

USD 45-50bn monthly range since March 2026, they remain below the trend that

prevailed before Liberation Day. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. The general 10%

tariff rate on European exports, implemented under the temporary use of Section

122, is set to expire on July 24. While three judges recently invalidated these

tariffs, the ruling was party-specific (applying only to the plaintiff importers) and

does not nullify the measure for everyone.

While Congress can potentially extend these temporary tariffs beyond July, the

Trump administration is actively trying to shift them to more permanent and

robust legal footings, such as Section 301 (see recent USTR proposal regarding

forced labor) and Section 232. That does not necessarily mean US tariffs will