US Economic Perspectives: DB AI hawk-dove update: More hawks eyes on inflation

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives: DB AI hawk-dove update: More hawks eyes on inflation

10 June 2026

US Economic Perspectives

rose by a comparable margin to 6.4, marking the most hawkish level observed

since the summer of 2022, during the peak of the COVID inflation shock.

While the range of individual scores within the Committee remained wide

between 4 and 8, the entire distribution has noticeably shifted in a more hawkish

direction, with the most dovish end now at 4, approaching a neutral stance (Figure

2). Notably, Governor Bowman, who has been on the dovish side of the

Committee, saw her score increase to 4 in June, up from 2 in April. Despite this

rise, her score remains the most dovish within the Committee and is the only one

among all voting officials to reside in dovish territory, reflecting her focus on labor

market vulnerabilities and willingness to look through energy price shocks.

Conversely, Governor Waller's score exhibited a hawkish pivot, rising further in

June from a neutral level to a hawkish 6.9. These hawkish shifts in scores from

officials typically leaning dovish align with their recent communications, with

Bowman acknowledging a scenario for rate hikes and Waller prioritizing inflation

over the labor market, expressing openness to tighter policy if inflation does not

subside "soon".

Scores for more hawkish officials also show significant increases, as many

officials have questioned the degree of restrictiveness of current policy.

Cleveland Fed’s Hammack recorded the most hawkish score on the Committee

at 7.8, followed by Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (7), Governor Cook (6.5), and

Dallas Fed’s Logan (6.5). New York’s Williams and Philadelphia’s Paulson saw

their scores rise modestly by 1.4 and 0.5, respectively, reaching 5.8 and 6. While