Dow: Preannounced Upside Surprise

Research evidence excerpt

Dow: Preannounced Upside Surprise

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Dow 10 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold

United States DOW.N DOW US Price target (USD) 36.00 Price at 8 Jun 26 34.20

52-week range 41.87 – 20.65

Industrials

Chemicals / Commodity Valuation & Risks

Preannounced Upside Surprise

David Begleiter

Strong global polyethylene demand drives increased guidance Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5473 At a competitor conference on Tuesday, June 9, Dow announced that Q2 EBITDA

would be roughly ~$2.2B, above its prior Q2 EBITDA guidance of ~$2B and Emily Fusco

consensus of ~$2.1B. The increase in guidance is driven by resilient global Research Associate

polyethylene (PE) demand and better-than-expected pricing, with a 30 c/lb price +1-212-250-5162

increase in US polyethylene contract prices in April. This upside was largely

expected as Dow’s initial Q2 EBITDA guidance of ~$2B assumed only a 20 c/lb

US polyethylene contract price increase in April.

Key changes

In Industrial, Intermediates & Infrastructure (II&I), constructive supply/demand Price target (USD) 40 36 -10%

dynamics, with tightness in MDI and polyols (PO) due to industry outages is Source:DeutscheBank

driving positive pricing momentum. These dynamics are reflected in strong order

loading for the segment relative to prior periods.

To reflect stronger-than-expected pricing momentum in polyethylene and

tightened supply dynamics in II&I, we are raising our Q2 EBITDA estimate by

$200MM to $2.25B, up from $703MM in the prior-year period (cons: $2.15B). As

a result, our ‘26E EBITDA is $7.4B, up 123% (cons: $6.9B).

We note there is potential upside to the raised guidance as it assumes a flat June

settlement for US polyethylene contract prices. This is versus a 20 c/lb price