TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

Global Research SECTOR NOTE

June 8, 2026 TD Cowen Capacity Tracker

■Consumer: Airlines

Tom Fitzgerald, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1304 Systemwide US capacity is scheduled to shrink 0.2% y/y in 3Q26, with domestic up 0.4% and international down 1.6%.

tom.fitzgerald@tdsecurities.com US airlines continue to cut supply from forward schedules in response to higher fuel prices, with investors laser focused

on potential cracks in air travel demand. Industry margin laggards and highly leveraged airlines will be under the most

pressure to prune unprofitable flying.

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Since our last report, there were no major changes to 2Q schedules (see p2). Four airlines made cuts to their 3Q schedules:

Sun Country -1.8pts, American -1.4pts, JetBlue -1.1pts, and Frontier -1.0pts. We continue to see strong y/y price increases in

both domestic and international markets (see p4 here). Spirit's demise (see notes here and here) should further raise the

floor on economy fares.

Investor debate remains on the extent to which consumers will accept higher fares. We continue to prefer airlines with

diversified revenue streams and more exposure to high income consumers. United and Delta remain our top 2 picks. Alaska

likely has the most torque to any normalization in fuel prices. A "bend, don't break" scenario likely keeps AAL's deleveraging

bull case in play (see mgmt call recap here).

Systemwide US capacity is scheduled to shrink 0.2% y/y in 3Q26, with domestic up 0.4% and international down 1.6% (see

p. 3–5). Capacity growth exhibits across airlines and markets follow on p.3-73.