Gear up for the sweet spot

Research evidence excerpt

Gear up for the sweet spot

Rusta

high and prospects that inflation will stay elevated. The driver is a combination of sticky

underlying inflation, a persistently weak NOK amplifying import price pressures, and wage

growth coming in above expectations. The Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee

for Wage Settlements projected inflation at 3.2% in 2026, well above Norges Bank's

December estimate of 2.5%, and the concern is that the wage environment alongside low

unemployment can offer a breeding ground for inflation to entrench.

Norwegian consumers are now facing the fact that mortgage relief is being pushed further

out. Households that were expecting rates to fall meaningfully through 2026 are now facing

a prolonged squeeze. The structural tailwind for the VHD format remains intact, even if

the cyclical boost from trade-down is fading. We believe that Norwegian consumers will

continue to search for affordable and money-saving options over our forecast period due to

ongoing concerns regarding higher costs of living and geopolitical changes, and that price

promotions, loyalty programs, and seasonal discounts will continue to gain popularity.

Consumer confidence, Norway

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Finans Norge & Verian

Finland

Consumer spending in Finland has been curbed by weak consumer confidence but is

expected to pick up and start to grow this year when real earnings increase and the labour

market gradually strengthens. The Bank of Finland forecasts GDP growth of 0.8% in 2026,

which is barely above stagnation (0.2% 2025), but it then estimates a pick-up to 1.7%-1.5%

in 2027-28. It also estimates public consumption growth of 1.1%-1.9% in 2026-28. Moreover,

unemployment rates are expected by the European Commission to decline, but even the