ECONOMICS : France: Fiscal challenges alongside growth resilience

Research evidence excerpt

ECONOMICS : France: Fiscal challenges alongside growth resilience

ECONOMICS

France: Fiscal challenges alongside growth resilience

KEY MESSAGES8 JUNE 2026

Macro Report We think France can still hit its 2026 budget deficit target (5% of GDP) and we keep our 4.5% target

Production time: 13:20 (London time) for next year despite the impact of the energy price shock.

Economists & Publishing Entities

Frédéric Pretet Growth resilience, led by industry, has been under appreciated, in our view, and supports deficit

Head of Thematic Economics and Chief reduction.France Economist

BNP Paribas SA

(+33) 1 44 95 69 28 But risks are building for 2027, with the government facing headwinds worth 0.4% of GDP, we

Frederic.Pretet@bnpparibas.com

estimate.

Stéphane Colliac

Head of Advanced economies We also think the approach of next April’s presidential election will steadily erode the appetite for

cross-party compromise on fiscal policy – a failure to agree a new budget risks a rewidening of the(+33) 1 42 98 26 77

stephane.colliac@bnpparibas.com deficit towards 5.5%.

Anubhav Lamichhane

G10 Rates Strategist The government has taken a balanced approach to tackle inflation but as presidential campaigning

BNP Paribas London Branch begins, we see a risk that parties push to protect household purchasing power at the expense of

(+44) 207 595 0312 corporates.

anubhav.lamichhane@uk.bnpparibas.com

Camille de Courcel

Head of DM Rates Strategy and Economics

BNP Paribas London Branch

(+44) 207 595 8295

camille.decourcel@uk.bnpparibas.com

Thisdocumentisnon-independentresearch.Ithasnotbeenpreparedinaccordancewithlegalrequirementsdesigned

toprovidetheindependenceofinvestmentresearch.PleaserefertotheLegalNotice(onp13)forimportantinformation.