ADOBE SYSTEMS (=) : FQ2’26 preview: M&A and CEO transition create tricky setup

Research evidence excerpt

ADOBE SYSTEMS (=) : FQ2’26 preview: M&A and CEO transition create tricky setup

EQUITIES

SOFTWARE

ADOBE SYSTEMS NEUTRALPRICE* USD251.4  TARGET PRICE USD265 (UPSIDE 5%)

FQ2’26 preview: M&A and CEO transition create tricky setup

Adobe will report FQ2’26 results on Thursday June 11th, after market close.8 JUNE 2026

Securities Research Report

Production time: 05:22* (London time) We remain cautious going into 2Q with many moving pieces making for a tricky setup

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities Adobe shares are -23% YTD, and -5% since 1Q earnings when CEO Shantanu Narayen announced

Stefan Slowinski his departure after 18 years at the helm. We believe leadership uncertainty may be weighing on the

BNP Paribas London Branch stock. We note a recent Bloomberg article reported the company is still considering multiple internal

(+44) 203 430 8549

stefan.slowinski@uk.bnpparibas.com and external candidates, suggesting a final decision may still be a ways away (Link). Fundamentally,

Adobe delivered a top line beat at 1Q, but left FY growth guidance unchanged at ~9% - 10%, implying

Keeler Patton

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 a lower FY26 exit rate. We would expect the company to offer a modest organic FY guide raise at

(+1) 646 342 6138 2Q, perhaps toward the lower-end of the 20bp-50bp 2Q raise range of recent years. Investors will

keeler.patton@us.bnpparibas.com also want to see FY26 organic ARR growth guidance raised from 10.2%, but we worry the company

Daniel Wang may repeat 2Q25 by leaving ARR guidance unchanged, driving 2H deceleration concerns. We

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 estimate Semrush (acquisition closed on 28 April) will contribute ~80bps sales growth to 2Q and

+1 646 785 3326 ~130bps to FY26. We view the integration into guidance as a near-term risk.