SA Rocks: Failed ignition

Research evidence excerpt

SA Rocks: Failed ignition

Idea

June 10, 2026 11:01 PM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MSA Rocks | Europe Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

Failed ignition Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.comChristopher Nicholson +27 11 587-0803

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0816

Given the rise in gas prices YTD, we'd have thought coal prices

EEMEA - Metals & Mining

would have performed more strongly than has been the case. Europe

But the reality is that substitution from LNG to coal power is Industry View In-Line

constrained. BHP Group Ltd: Rising data centre build favours

BHP's commodity mix – but there's plenty of

Exhibit 1: Despite sharply higher LNG prices, we haven't seen evidence of alpha too (13 May 2026)

material switching to coal power generation The Oil Manual: Why is the Price of Oil Not

Higher? (11 May 2026)

Coal arrivals by destination

25.0 Sibanye-Stillwater: Finland trip day 2 (22 Apr

2026)

20.0

Sibanye-Stillwater: Finland trip day 1 (20 Apr

15.0 2026YTD

China SA Gold: Asymmetry favours upside (15 Apr

Mt/wk India 2026) 10.0

EU metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 2Q26: Two-Way

South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

5.0 Risks (8 Apr 2026)

Commodity Matters: Stockpiling, Scarcity and 2024

- 1 3 5 7 9 Safe Havens (8 Apr 2026)

11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Metals & Mining: 2Q26 - A Sharp Turn in Week number

Narrative (8 Apr 2026)

Source: Refinitiv Workspace, RMB Morgan Stanley Research SA Diversified Mining: Updated estimates and

valuations (9 Apr 2026)

Gas prices outstripping coal. JKM gas prices are up 97% YTD compared to

Paper & Packaging: Scenario Framing Amid

Newcastle and Richards Bay coal at 38% higher. Gas to coal switching in electricity

Energy Shock (31 Mar 2026)