Paper & Packaging: Sector Read-X from Kemira Profit Warning

Research evidence excerpt

Paper & Packaging: Sector Read-X from Kemira Profit Warning

Update

June 10, 2026 01:19 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MPaper & Packaging | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

Sector Read-X from Kemira Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystProfit Warning Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Key Takeaways EuropePaper & Packaging

Kemira’s 13% 2026 EBITDA guide cut points to weaker P&P demand relative to Industry View In-Line

the April outlook and comes despite chemicals price hikes.

Key questions is whether Middle East-related pre-buy/restocking may have

masked softer underlying trends.

We continue to lean defensive; SW and UPM over Mondi and Holmen.

What's new?: Kemira (not covered) - a global leader in sustainable chemistry

supporting the Pulp/Packaging/Hygiene industries (56% of 205 revenue) - today

released a profit warning (see here). The company lowered the 2026 EBITDA

outlook by 13% to €400-500mn (from €470-570mn) due to (1) the ongoing cost

pressures and delayed benefit of chemical price hikes, and (2) weak demand among

customer industries relative to the 24 April outlook update. The revised outlook

assumes that (1) demand in Kemira's end-markets remains weak due to continued

global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions; (2) no significant further

increases in raw material costs, including oil derivatives, and logistics costs; (3) no

major disruptions to Kemira’s manufacturing operations or the supply chain and the

US dollar to remain steady. At the time of writing, Kemira shares were down 8%.

Our view: We believe Kemira's profit warning could trigger renewed investor

concerns around the health of P&P demand trends.