Chinese Airports: Still Waiting for the Turn

Research evidence excerpt

Chinese Airports: Still Waiting for the Turn

Idea

June 10, 2026 09:58 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChinese Airports | Asia Pacific Tenny Song

Equity Analyst

Still Waiting for the Turn Tenny.Song@morganstanley.comQianlei Fan, CFA +852 3963-1737

Qianlei.Fan@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1875

We remain cautious on Chinese airports, as elevated fuel costs Evan Chen

weigh on traffic growth and duty-free improvements take time. ResearchEvan.Chen@morganstanley.comAssociate +852 2848-7317

GBIA also faces an uncertain earnings rebound amid capacity

expansion in soft macro. Move GBIA to UW; remain EW on SIAC

and UW on BCIA.

Air traffic growth under pressure amid energy shock: China’s air pax growth has

Hong Kong/China Transportation &

been under pressure since Apr-26 as the global energy shock lifted air ticket prices.

Infrastructure

We observed a pax shift from air to railway starting Mar-26. Domestic pax growth at Asia Pacific

SIAC, GBIA and BCIA slowed to 3-4% YoY in Apr-26 from 6-10% YoY in 1Q26. Non- Industry View In-Line

domestic traffic growth also softened to 4-18% YoY in Apr-26 from 7-24% YoY in What’s Changed

1Q26. SIAC underperformed likely due to higher exposure to Japan routes. Guangzhou Baiyun Int'l Airport

(600004.SS) From To

Price Target Rmb10.90 Rmb6.60

Duty-free business still in transition: Although we believe the new duty-free (DF)

Rating Equal-weight Underweight

contracts signed in Dec-25 favor airports, airport DF revenue remained under

Shanghai International Airport

pressure in 1Q26 due to the rent-free period at SIAC and disruption during the

(600009.SS) From To

transition between duty-free operators. DF rent at SIAC fell to Rmb176mn in 1Q26, Price Target Rmb35.90 Rmb21.10

down 49% YoY. BCIA also saw a decline in per-pax DF spending in 1Q26.