Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLSS: Capacity Rules the Roost

Research evidence excerpt

Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLSS: Capacity Rules the Roost

Update

June 10, 2026 05:21 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLSS: Capacity Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Rules the Roost Madison J Pasterchick

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Current and forward indices are mixed as 2026 TL rate

expectations remain elevated at +6.4%. Commentary leans

"green", with a strong focus on tightening capacity and increasing

rates.

Freight Transportation

North America

Industry View Attractive

Select quotes from our survey…

• "We all knew that rates were artificially inflated

during COVID and in 2017 when Hurricane Harvey

and Irma hit. Nothing about this feels artificial.

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of May and vs. our This feels like a fundamental resetting of the

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged market, with current rates being the new

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.11 in 6 benchmark. Do I believe rates will come down by

months (currently $2.39) and move to $2.26 in 12 months. Please find the full a small amount… yes. Am I expecting to see huge

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model decreases once things stabilize… no. " (Shipper)

TLQURE , and here for more information on the QURE model. • “Repricing earlier bids for driver wages and

defiant fuel surcharges with little pushback. Safe

Forward sentiment is mixed as 2026 rate expectations reach highest levels since

carriers have more value now since the SCOTUS

August 2021.