Oil Data Digest: Digging into the China Data

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Data Digest: Digging into the China Data

Idea

June 10, 2026 04:36 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MOil Data Digest | Europe Charlotte Firkins

Commodities Strategist

Digging into the China Data Charlotte.Firkins@morganstanley.comMartijn Rats, CFA +44 20 7425-3866

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Martijn.Rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6618

China has played a significant role in balancing the global oil

market over the last few months. In this note we go through the Exhibit 1 : Crude net imports fell 2.4 mb/d

latest data on China's oil trade, refining and demand sectors to MoM in April to 9.3 mb/d. Net imports then

understand how Chinese refiners were able to curtail imports by declined to 7.8 mb/d in May, down 3.2 mb/d

YoY.

~5 mb/d over March-May.

China has been a key balancing market in helping the world absorb the supply

shock resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese refiners have

cut crude imports dramatically over March-May, with total May crude imports at

~7.8 mb/d, down 3.2 mb/d YoY and almost ~5 mb/d lower than pre-conflict levels in

February. However, observable crude inventory data shows China's crude stocks

rising over the course of March and April before eventually drawing in May, which

feels inconsistent with the large import cuts.

However, it must be recalled that prior to this conflict China was over-importing Source: China General Administration of Customs, Morgan Stanley

Research

on crude for the majority of 2025 and early 2026, aggressively building both

commercial and strategic oil inventories. This was true in February 2026, where

Exhibit 2 : Observable Chinese crude

China's crude balance appeared to be in a ~2.7 mb/d surplus, as crude imports

inventories continued to build over March and