North America Steel 2Q Mid-Quarter Preview: Expect Solid Prints and Better-Than-Seasonal 2H26; Continue to View US Steel Sector as Relative Safe Haven

Research evidence excerpt

North America Steel 2Q Mid-Quarter Preview: Expect Solid Prints and Better-Than-Seasonal 2H26; Continue to View US Steel Sector as Relative Safe Haven

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 June 2026

North America Steel

2Q Mid-Quarter Preview: Expect Solid Prints and

Better-Than-Seasonal 2H26; Continue to View US Steel

Sector as Relative Safe Haven

Metals & Mining

Bill Peterson AC

(1-415) 315-6766

bill.peterson@jpmchase.com

Bennett Moore AC

Ahead of 2Q mid-quarter guides (STLD/NUE) and CMC’s F3Q print (Jun-25), (1-212) 622-0188

bennett.moore@jpmchase.com

we mark to market our steel price forecast to reflect improved fundamentals that J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

we anticipate will result in a relatively subdued 2H peak-to-trough seasonal price

range. Our channel checks continue to confirm limited spot availability and steady-

to-improving demand – see our recent Steel Expert Call takeaways (link). Domestic

lead times are extended through summer and inventories are tracking at multi-year

lows, which we believe can support price strength through at least the third quarter,

offsetting the typical 2H seasonal slowdown while benefiting mills’ earnings through

year-end given lagged contracts. For companies rolling off peak capex (STLD/NUE),

this should translate to greater shareholder returns, while accelerating debt paydown

for those emerging from M&A (CMC/CLF). We suspect imports will become a bigger

factor in the months ahead, but mills’ disciplined price hikes have kept them at bay.

Lengthy shipping times and freight/insurance costs also remain deterrents, although

the lack of domestic availability has begun making these risks bearable. Longer term,

we view rate hikes, Middle East-related demand destruction, and potential USMCA