NUE: Q2 Mid-Qtr Guidance: Looking Through the Noise

Research evidence excerpt

NUE: Q2 Mid-Qtr Guidance: Looking Through the Noise

Equity Research

Price Target Change — June 17, 2026

Steel

Nucor Corporation

Q2 Mid-Qtr Guidance: Looking Through the Noise Overweight

Price Target: $283.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

Q2E's $4.50-4.60 EPS guide topped consensus at $4.21, but trailed our $4.91 despite a Price Target $283.00 $292.00 -3.1%

$130M 1x refund. We think intersegment eliminations hurt the qtr. We trim ests, but stay EBITDA 7.52B 7.63B -1.5%

Overweight with spot prices well above our forecasts and as FCF inflects. (MM) 2026

EBITDA 7.45B 7.65B -2.5%

Noisy mid-Q2 guide disappoints. Mgmt guided to $4.50-4.60 Q2E adjusted EPS, (MM) 2027

above FactSet consensus at $4.21 but below our $4.91 estimate. Mgmt reiterated EPS 2026 18.75 19.25 -2.6%

expected higher earnings across all three segments, with Steel Mill results supported by EPS 2027 19.50 20.25 -3.7%

an apparent 1x $130M refund (~$0.43/shr) for prior period raw material purchases. We

think sharply higher costs weighed on intersegment eliminations, but should not repeat. It Ticker NUE

repurchased $250M of stock qtd, a high since Q125. Upside/(Downside) to Target 12.0%

Price (06/17/2026) $252.60

Trimming ests. We cut Q2E EPS to $4.69 from $4.91 to reflect higher intersegment 52 Week Range $122.82 - 270.90

elimination costs. Q3E should improve further with ~80% of NUE’s sheet volumes Market Cap (MM) $57,921

benefiting from hot rolled coil (HRC) >$1,100/st on monthly/qtrly lags. Our 2026E Enterprise Value (MM) $62,564

EBITDA falls to $7.5B vs $7.63B, using $1,025/st H2E hot rolled coil (HRC). Strong plate

Average Daily Value (MM) $378

and beam prices (~20% of mill volumes) can boost earnings, somewhat offset by softer

rebar mkts.