U.S. Autos & Mobility: Updated thoughts on running your car into the ground, and the impact of an aging US car parc

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Autos & Mobility: Updated thoughts on running your car into the ground, and the impact of an aging US car parc

Barclays | U.S. Autos & Mobility

2. A stronger used car market - With vehicle ages further extended, it should support the used

car market, with strengthened residual values. This primarily helps the "older" segment of used

cars, but we believe that extended vehicle lives should improve residual value across the

spectrum.

Drivers of the aging car parc

The aging of the US fleet can be considered by time period:

1. The steady increase in fleet age over the past 2 decades is largely attributable to higher

build quality in vehicles (incl. higher Japanese mix) enabling greater mileage/reliability;

2. The recent uptick (post-2021) reflects not only improved quality, but also supply constraints

related to COVID and continued elevated pricing post-COVID, both of which have muted new

car purchases and delayed the replacement cycle

Going forward, both of these factors will play a role in further aging the fleet, especially to the

extent prices remain at/near record highs. EV dynamics will also contribute, both via near-term

delay on replacing ICE with EV, and longer-term given extended vehicle lifespans for EVs.

New vehicle prices near record highs + increases in other auto costs challenge

affordability

New car prices remain elevated. While industry-wide US pricing had softened/normalized

slightly in '23/'24 from the Dec. 2022 highs, the onset of tariffs in early '25 has resulted in pricing

increases; YTD 2026 new vehicle ATPs (average transaction prices) are ~$46k/unit, ~36% above

2019 levels. We continue to expect modest normalization from here, yet the timeline for

normalization is unclear, especially now so given the number of headwinds OEMs face on cost -