J. M. Smucker Co: F4Q Follow Up: A Stronger Brew, With Fewer Jitters

Research evidence excerpt

J. M. Smucker Co: F4Q Follow Up: A Stronger Brew, With Fewer Jitters

e prices ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

flow through with very limited volume elasticity assumed. Margin visibility also e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

appears solid, primarily driven by the coffee segment which will benefit from both Quarterly EPS ($)

the mechanical lap of tariffs and lower green coffee costs, despite embedded Quarter 2025 2026ePrior Current2026e 2027ePrior Current2027e

headwinds from lower price realization and ongoing volume declines. Tariff refunds Q1 2.44 - 1.90a 2.12 2.20

Q2 2.76 - 2.10a 2.49 2.61

could in theory represent another source of upside (with the company confirming

Q3 2.61 - 2.38a 2.63 2.52

that they are the importer of record for coffee). We were also somewhat surprised Q4 2.31 - 2.77a 2.50 2.78

by the relatively benign cost outlook following the Iran conflict, with SJM expecting e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

only ~LSD% inflation across the portfolio excluding coffee (vs. CPB’s ~MSD%

outlook). While this could ultimately end up higher depending on the duration of

the conflict, management sounded confident in its ability to manage through the

pressure, and we do not view it as a major issue given flexibility / conservatism

elsewhere in the guide. Net, we are raising our FY27 EPS estimate by +3.2% to

reflect the 4Q upside and lower cost pressure than we expected with our PT moving

up to $110 on our higher estimates, but remain EW, with the risk / reward appearing

balanced following today’s move.

Additional Takeaways on the Model from the Call and Our Follow-Up:

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with