Australia Consumer: Switch and Thrift 2026: Consumer Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Consumer: Switch and Thrift 2026: Consumer Takeaways

Idea

June 9, 2026 08:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Consumer | Asia Pacific Melinda K Baxter

Equity Analyst

Switch and Thrift 2026: Melinda.Baxter@morganstanley.comJulia M de Sterke +61 2 9770-1176

Julia.De.Sterke@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1658

Consumer Takeaways Mac Ross, CFA

Mac.Ross@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1579

AlphaWise survey points to a resilient but selective consumer,

with spend shifting toward essentials, value and convenience.

Lower-income households most pressured, supporting staples

and value, leaving discretionary retailers more exposed.

Australia Consumer

Asia PacificM Industry View Cautious

Key Takeaways

Essentials continue to win. Grocery the only clear positive spend category, with

+29% net intended spend, while most discretionary categories remain negative.

Grocery value-seeking is intensifying. Aldi gaining share, private label remains a

major trade-down beneficiary, and price is still the top purchase driver.

Digital grocery and household shopping are becoming more habitual. Online

grocery subscriptions have moved from minority to majority adoption.

Supportive for essential, value and digital-scale retailers, while discretionary

exposed to deferral risk. Alcohol structurally soft, health-led a priority.

AlphaWise survey: Our ninth annual AlphaWise survey of Australian Households

shows a generally resilient backdrop, but evidence of caution is emerging amid an

overly optimistic outlook for income and wealth. See here Cracks Emerging.

Survey suggests the consumer remains cautious, value-led and selective:

Financial pressure has eased from peak levels, but affordability continues to drive

behaviour, particularly for lower-income households.