Podcast | Morgan Stanley Tech Talk: Stephen Byrd on AI Power + BTC Miner Supply-Demand, Deal Terms, Upside Math, Stocks to Watch | Ep. 307

Research evidence excerpt

Podcast | Morgan Stanley Tech Talk: Stephen Byrd on AI Power + BTC Miner Supply-Demand, Deal Terms, Upside Math, Stocks to Watch | Ep. 307

IdeaMValuation Methodology and Risks

Bloom Energy Corp. (BE.N)

Derived from an unlevered DCF analysis with 10.8% discount rate, based on a 4.0% risk-free

rate, 1.75 Beta and 4.29% equity risk premium.

Risks to Upside

n Higher revenue growth through '35, given current low market penetration rates

n Cost reduction initiatives outpace expectations

n Customer adoption increase in light of de-energization in CA.

Risks to Downside

n Regulators impose charges on C&I customers that use distributed generation.

n Stricter emissions regulation.

n New entrants / technologies emerge with cost-competitive products.

n Cost reductions don't materialize.

Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR.O)

We assume a moderately lower cash flow yield on future Bitcoin-to-DC projects, based on the

comparable transaction history in which CIFR's contracted cash flow yields are lower than

WULF's.

n HPC leases: Discounted NAV

n Bitcoin Mining Capacity: EV/Watt

n Pipeline Sites (50% Probability of Energization): Discounted NAV

n Lease economics could fall short of $/watt assumptions.

n Delays/cost overruns may pressure campus returns.

n Failure to monetize HPC pipeline would limit valuation upside.

n Future hyperscaler leases could move CIFR toward consistent $13-18/watt value crea-

tion.

n Black Pearl conversion and IT-load gains could lift pipeline value.

n Faster monetization of the 2.6GW HPC pipeline could raise valuation upside.

Mara Holdings Inc. (MARA.O)

For MARA, Bitcoin mining economics are the dominant driver of the stock's value. We base our

Bitcoin pricing expectations on a variance that is derived from sensitizing total crypto trading