Chemicals: China Reinstates Urea Export Price Floors

Research evidence excerpt

Chemicals: China Reinstates Urea Export Price Floors

Update

June 9, 2026 11:58 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMChemicals | North America Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

China Reinstates Urea Export Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +1 212 761-3293

Lisa H De Neve

Equity AnalystPrice Floors Lisa.De.Neve@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0250

Trade sources are now reporting that China has reinstated urea export price Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Justin T Pellegrinofloors for shipments to India at no less than $500 mt FOB for large granular and

Research Associate

$510 mt FOB for auto-grade. Export floors for other destinations may be Justin.Pellegrino@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4054

"appropriately reduced" but those these exact levels remain under discussion,

though we expect definition in the near term and for now assume floors similar to

Indian levels. Exporters who sell below these levels may lose the self-regulatory

enterprise status.

The reintroduction of floors comes as the latest India tender for ~1.7mm mt Chemicals

reportedly saw offers as low as $410s/t CFR which would net back to below North America

Industry View In-Line

$400/t FOB for Chinese exporters. Given the now $500 mt floor, the signal seems

to be that China will not be participating in this India tender.

This reinstatement supports our view that there was risk that China would look

to limit export volume but max price while the SOH remains closed (see LINK).

How much these new floors will impact global market prices bears watching over

the balance of the week given the recent significant declines in global prices: US

NoLa prices had moved to a $360 st to $410 st range as of yesterday (though we

note Chinese exports have not been in the US for many years), Brazil moved down