MS Food: Trends in All-Channel US Scanner Data Through 5/30

Research evidence excerpt

MS Food: Trends in All-Channel US Scanner Data Through 5/30

Update

June 9, 2026 11:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMS Food | North America Megan Alexander Clapp, CFA

Equity Analyst

Trends in All-Channel US Megan.A.Clapp@morganstanley.comDarryl Scott Butler Jr +1 212 761-3715

Research Associate

Darryl.Butler.Jr@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0672

Scanner Data Through 5/30

Key Takeaways

Food scanner y/y takeaway trends were generally stable in the L4W vs. the L12W,

though trends remain muted overall and divergent by company. Packaged Foods

North America

L2W trends were also broadly similar sequentially, with wide company Industry View In-Line

dispersion: HSY/SJM/MDLZ/CPB decelerated, GIS/CAG improved, KHC similar.

The L4W vs. L12W read is constructive for most large caps, with KHC the

exception. GIS is the most notable sequential improver among the laggards.

Scanner trends and known shipment timing dynamics point to F4Q OSG

downside risk for GIS and CAG, though likely well appreciated.

Our current read for calendar 2Q reporters points to potential OSG upside risk

for MDLZ/BRBR while KHC/HSY look closer to in line.

Below, we are enclosing Nielsen's All Measured Outlets data for the 4 weeks ended

5/30/26 as well as weekly data, notable company-specific observations, our inflection

tracker, and QTD scanner sales vs. consensus estimates.

Overall, total food takeaway was up +1.8% y/y (+2.6% 2-yr) in all-channel

Nielsen scanner data for the 4 weeks ended 5/30/26, in line with the latest 12-

week trend of +1.8% y/y (+2.7% 2-yr). However, large-cap food remains more

muted, with the large-cap average +0.1% y/y in the L4W (-0.3% 2-yr), broadly

similar to the L12W at -0.3% y/y (-1.0% 2-yr). By company, absolute trends remain