Johnson Controls International Plc: PT to $175

Research evidence excerpt

Johnson Controls International Plc: PT to $175

IdeaMbuyback (less than half of capital deployment opportunity). A simple DCF would

argue for ~30x NTM EPS on a mid / high-teens EPS CAGR, but the market will

discount Data Center as it is unlikely that the category can sustain ~30% organic

growth beyond 2030. As such, we think a high 20 EPS multiple is fair value – this

matches premium industrial comps and JCI outsized service mix at ~33% provides a

more durable revenue stream relative to the broader market. Raising the organic

growth profile to HSD from MSD adds roughly ~500 bps to JCI annual EPS growth,

arguing for a 9-turn rerating in the NTM PE multiple vs history.

Biggest Concern: Our biggest NTM concern for JCI and the Data Center complex

more broadly is that since Q4'25, customers have been placing orders with longer

lead times (link) – a dynamic that overstates leading-edge demand (Q4'25 -

Q1'26) and increases the likelihood that orders turn negative over the NTM by

creating tougher comps & pulling forward future orders (i.e., air pocket risk). It is

important to note that we believe the underlying motivation is a positive one – we

think Data Center customers see improving monetization trends (and perhaps

supply-chain risk on memory) and are thus more willing to go further out in the

future to lock up available supply of product. And while this dynamic has no

impact on JCI operations or F'27 - F'28 EPS power, orders are the KPI for

Industrials and are the key driver of sentiment for the Data Center complex

where there is uncertainty on both the duration of capex strength but also

shifting content opportunity for the equipment suppliers amidst architecture

change (i.e., 800V). The concern for chillers is that while customers have begun