Energy: 150 Charts that Decode the European Majors

Research evidence excerpt

Energy: 150 Charts that Decode the European Majors

Shell

SHELL - FINANCIAL SUMMARY Remuneration - USDmn 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e Balance Sheet - USDmn 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e

DPS ($/sh) 1.29 1.39 1.45 1.58 1.66 Cash & equivalents 38,774 39,110 30,216 23,118 23,118

Key Assumptions - USDmn 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e Growth (%) 24.7% 7.5% 4.0% 9.0% 5.5% Inventories 26,019 23,426 22,216 29,244 26,980

Total production (Kboe/d) 2,740 2,785 2,759 2,734 3,187 Dividends declared 8,577 8,638 8,388 8,984 8,890 Accounts receivable 53,273 45,860 44,597 56,857 51,937

Liquids (Kbbl/d) 1,454 1,452 1,494 1,535 1,685 Share buybacks 14,700 14,000 14,000 14,000 16,000 Fixed assets 221,748 210,731 211,749 230,599 230,141

Natural gas (mmcf/d) 7,457 7,734 7,338 6,952 8,715 Total remuneration 23,277 22,638 22,388 22,984 24,890 Equity affiliates 24,457 23,445 27,775 30,031 29,971

Growth (%) (2.8%) 1.7% (1.0%) (0.9%) 16.6% %of CFFO 47.2% 40.8% 47.0% 33.9% 41.1% Others 41,998 45,037 33,797 35,678 35,675

Adjusted CFFO (excl. W/C) 44,689 50,722 42,968 61,601 54,727 Total assets 406,269 387,609 370,350 405,527 397,822

Brent price ($/bbl) 83 81 69 95 80 Adjusted FCF (excl. W/C) 20,493 29,717 22,135 37,498 34,567

NBP price (p/therm) 99 83 90 156 113 Dividend cover by FCF (%) 41.9% 29.1% 37.9% 24.0% 25.7% Short-term debt 9,931 11,630 9,128 10,893 9,478

Indicative refining margin ($/bbl) 12.5 7.8 10.1 15.3 7.7 Long-term debt 71,610 65,448 66,515 68,085 63,838

Indicative chemical margin ($/tonne) 133 152 148 85 130 Indebtedness - USDmn 2023 2024 2025 2026e 2027e Payables 68,237 60,693 57,770 64,393 59,194

Marketing sales volumes (Kbbl/d) 2,554 2,843 2,753 2,683 2,731 Gross debt 81,541 77,078 75,643 78,979 73,315 Deferred taxes 18,769 18,153 15,133 15,767 15,767