Skanska AB: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Skanska AB: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Skanska AB (SKAb.ST)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Group local currency growth (%) 5.6 0.8 (3.7) 3.0

EBIT margin (%) 3.7 4.7 5.2 5.2

Dividend payout (%) 88 70 70 70

Construction local currency growth

6.2 0.7 3.4 3.5

(%)

Construction EBIT margin (%) 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Construction spending trends in US Building / RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

CW, Nordics, CEE and the UK Inflection in US/Nordics DC orders 8,673 Swedish interest rates (RD driver) and US Construction margin upside from finishing DC EBIT

interest rates (CD) orders + greater US Civil mix contribution (SKr, mn) 7,301 8,708

FX (USD) Interest cuts reviving the Nordics resi + US CRE 8,186

Construction orders and CD sales markets

announcements 16.90

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EPS

16.59 17.90

Continued slump in DC orders pressuring (SKr)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE 17.12 2H26/27 Construction revenues/margin

Lull in traditional US non-res market + peak in

0-10% UK US civil megaprojects in 2026e Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

40-50% Europe ex UK Lasting pressure on CD margins on low Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

40-50% North America embedded capital gains

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 63.6%

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x

HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7%

3/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund MOST Horizon

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored trends.