Freight Transportation: Upcoming USMCA Review & Impacts to Freight

Research evidence excerpt

Freight Transportation: Upcoming USMCA Review & Impacts to Freight

Update

June 9, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Upcoming USMCA Review & Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comAriana Salvatore +1 212 761-6350

Equity Strategist

Ariana.Salvatore@morganstanley.com

Impacts to Freight Madison J Pasterchick

Research Associate

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Nancy Hipp

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

The ongoing review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)

appears likely to extend beyond the originally anticipated timeline in line with Freight Transportation

North America

our policy strategists' view, with constructive discussions expected to continue Industry View Attractive

through the summer. Market participants increasingly view the review as likely to

result in only limited changes rather than a wholesale renegotiation.

Our Public Policy Strategy team's base case remains that the USMCA framework

will remain largely intact. Even if the review process extends beyond its initial

deadline, the agreement would continue to remain in force through at least 2036

unless one of the member countries formally seeks to withdraw. As a result, we

believe the primary risk to markets stems less from the possibility of a USMCA

collapse and more from uncertainty surrounding implementation details, sector-

specific trade measures, and Section 232 tariffs.

Why the Review Matters: The USMCA was signed in 2020, before major

developments including the acceleration of nearshoring trends, increased US-China

competition, the emergence of AI-related supply chains, and shifting geopolitical

priorities. These changes have fueled discussion around whether elements of the