Global Chocolate Unwrapped: May Edition: Cocoa Squeezes Higher

Research evidence excerpt

Global Chocolate Unwrapped: May Edition: Cocoa Squeezes Higher

Foundation

June 9, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MGlobal Chocolate Unwrapped | Europe David J Roux

Equity Analyst

May Edition: Cocoa Squeezes David.Roux@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7425-1040

Megan Alexander Clapp, CFA

Equity AnalystHigher Megan.A.Clapp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3715

Cocoa bean prices rose ~13% over May, driven by renewed Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Sarah Simon

Equity Analystconcerns around fertilizer shortages and El Niño risks to 2026/27

Sarah.Simon@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6064

production. However, nearer-term supply markers continue to

improve for the industry. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Tomonobu Tsunoyama

Cocoa prices squeeze higher in May. Cocoa bean cash prices rose +14% in London Tomonobu.Tsunoyama@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8936

over May and +12% in the US. Forward curves shifted +17% higher m/m in London

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+

and +16% in the US, and remain in modest contango. Positioning in cocoa remains Kelly H Kim, CFA

bearish, and as such, rising supply side concerns over fertilizer shortages and the Equity Analyst

Kelly.Kim@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4837

potential El Niño impact on 2026/27 production (link) likely drove prices higher in

May. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Chris Linford, CFA

Futures warehouse stock levels continue to improve. ICE Futures warehouse Research Associate

Chris.Linford@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1639

stocks rose +8% m/m in May (April +12% m/m), marking the fifth consecutive

Richard Li

monthly increase, and are now in the 25th percentile (April 19th, December 5th) for Research Associate

the 24-year historical range.