Staffers: Uncertain environment leaves downside risk to permanent recruitment

Research evidence excerpt

Staffers: Uncertain environment leaves downside risk to permanent recruitment

Idea

June 9, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MStaffers | Europe Remi Grenu

Equity Analyst

Uncertain environment leaves Remi.Grenu@morganstanley.comAnnelies Vermeulen +44 20 7425-0552

Annelies.Vermeulen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4367

downside risk to permanent Zachariah Al-Qaryooti

Research Associate

Zach.Al-Qaryooti@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2400

recruitment

Business Services

Europe

Uncertain backdrop and labour market data point to risk of Industry View Attractive

further deterioration of perm, a drag on top-line growth, gross What’s Changed

margin and operating leverage across the space. Prefer Randstad Adecco Group (ADEN.S) From To

Rating Equal-weight Underweight

(EW) vs Adecco (UW) in this context for its lower leverage and Price Target SFr 20.50 SFr 15.00

limited dilution risk, and Hays (EW) vs Page Group (UW). Randstad NV (RAND.AS) From To

Rating Underweight Equal-weight

Why are we writing now? Despite the recent improvement in organic growth Price Target €26.00 €25.50

across the staffing space, mainly driven by better temporary staffing, we reiterate

Page Group PLC (PAGE.L) From To

our cautious stance on the sub-sector. The macroeconomic and geopolitical Price Target 195p 110p

environment has become more uncertain and could take a toll on the recruitment/

Hays PLC (HAYS.L) From To

staffing market, something we think has not yet been fully reflected in consensus Rating Underweight Equal-weight

expectations. Concerns over the AI risk in the mid term also remain and could Price Target 44p 35p

continue to weigh on valuation, together with short-term macro headwinds.

Risk to perm limits the upside. The lack of positive share-price reaction to recent