Quick Note - ASEAN palm oil - Key newsflow (May 23–29)

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Note - ASEAN palm oil - Key newsflow (May 23–29)

Global Markets Research

29 May 2026ASEAN palm oil

EQUITY: AGRI-RELATED

Key newsflow (May 23–29) Research Analysts

ASEAN Agri-Related

Raghavendra Divekar, CFA - NSMQuick Note raghavendra.divekar@nomura.com

+603 2027 6893

Research Associates

Fig. 1: Nomura CPO price gauge ASEAN Agri-Related

We expect CPO prices to decrease to ~MYR4,400/MT by 4 June 2026

Amol Dongre - NSFSPL

Source: Nomura estimates

We expect CPO prices to decline to MYR4,400/MT by 4 June 2026

The spot price for CPO (crude palm oil) rose 1% w-w to MYR4,492/MT in the week ended

28 May, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). This was largely due to

higher crude oil prices following escalation in the conflict in West Asia. For the next week,

we expect prices to decline slightly on advanced discussions of a 60-day ceasefire

between the US and Iran. Overall, we expect the average CPO price to decrease to

MYR4,400/MT by 4 June. However, if exports are stronger than expected and crude oil

prices rise further, CPO prices could remain at ~MYR4,500/MT, in our view.

Indonesia's March 2026 inventory rises 27% m-m on weaker exports

According to GAPKI, Indonesia’s CPO inventory level rose to 2.57mn MT, up 27% m-m

but still 29% below average. While production declined 12% m-m in March, exports fell

34% m-m from a relatively high base in February 2026. Domestic consumption fell 8% m-

m in March with domestic biodiesel consumption also declining 8% m-m.

Our view: Weaker exports from Indonesia in March were balanced by stronger exports

from Malaysia, which rose 38% m-m. We expect Indonesian exports to have risen sharply

in April given the weaker exports from Malaysia. We see this resulting in inventory levels

in April going back to the 2.0mn MT mark.