Private Equity Funds: Takeaways from Bain's mid-year private equity market report

Research evidence excerpt

Private Equity Funds: Takeaways from Bain's mid-year private equity market report

Barclays | Private Equity Funds

FIGURE 1. Global technology buyout deal value FIGURE 2. Change in valuations marks for buyout holdings from Q4

2025 to Q1 2026

$bn 2% 0.8%

118 0%

-0.3% -0.6%

100 -2%

80 65 -4%

60 -4.2%

-6%

34 33 40

20 12 -8% -7.9%

0 -10% -8.9%

Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Global US Europe

Global technology buyout deal value Software All other sectors

Source: Bain Private Equity Midyear Report 2026 Source: MSCI

Deal momentum stalled again: Despite optimism at the start of the year, overall deal activity

has slowed materially amid renewed market disruption, with investment volumes declining

sharply in early 2026 and recovery expectations once again deferred. Transaction activity has

been hindered by geopolitical uncertainty, widening bid-ask spreads, reduced risk appetite, and

ongoing uncertainty around valuations, leading to a more selective market where only assets

considered high-quality consistently clear at attractive prices. While there remains significant

dry powder and debt markets are broadly functional, deal activity has become increasingly

uneven across sectors, with segments of conviction offset by areas of heightened caution.

Forward indicators (such as Ontra's NDA tracker) suggest activity may stabilise near-term but is

unlikely to rebound meaningfully without sustained valuation clarity. With elevated multiples

and relatively high debt costs, investors need high conviction with a reduced margin of safety. In

terms of sector activity, generalist GPs have rotated capital away from areas with greater asset

backing such as industrials (echoing commentary from recent sector CMDs).

FIGURE 3. Quarterly deal and exit activity

$bn

Deals Exits