DOCU: Q1 Beats; But ARR Guidance Only Re-affirmed

Research evidence excerpt

DOCU: Q1 Beats; But ARR Guidance Only Re-affirmed

DocuSign

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

PositivesDocuSign

• Market leadership position. DocuSign is the undisputed

120 125 Weeks 12JAN24 - 04JUN26 leader in e-signature, in our view, and has meaningfully

110 increased the separation from the No. 2 player in the space

90 (Adobe). We expect this gap to grow with the broadening of

80 DocuSign’s platform.

60 TARGETTARGET 55.0055.00 • Broader platform expansion. We are positive on

50 CURRENTCURRENT 50.9450.94 DocuSign’s investments to expand beyond e-signature and

30 become a broader software platform driving the entire

20 agreement/negotiation process. While it is still early, we

80m 60m remain encouraged by DocuSign CLM (contract lifecycle

40m 20m management). Given the likely hybrid nature of work post-

2024 2025 2026 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J COVID and reduced business travel (see our discussion on

DOCU US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks this topic here), solutions enabling remote agreements and

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target negotiations will likely become more important.

Valuation • Attractive long-term financial model. DocuSign has a solid

We calculate our base-case price target of $55 by applying an growth and profitability combination. In fact, in FY25,

~8x multiple to our CY27E FCF estimate. Our target multiple DocuSign scored a 39 on a “Rule of 40” basis, and we expect

is roughly in line with the Low Growth peer group, reflecting that it can return to 40+ long term.

our near-term concerns about the turnaround and timeline for

platform expansion, partially offset by our positive long-term Negatives

views on the company’s market leadership and potential TAM.