Norwegian Savings Banks - NIM squeeze before rate relief-05/26/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Norwegian Savings Banks - NIM squeeze before rate relief-05/26/2026

isen by 33 bps q/q, likely to put pressure on market funding costs. We estimate NIMs to ( 6.0) ( 4.1) ( 4.1) ( 5.3)

decline further from Q1 levels, with NIIs roughly stable q/q as an extra interest day and ( 8.0) ( 6.2)

volume growth offset. Following Norges Bank's hike, DNB was first to follow with ( 10.0)

repricing effective from 12 July (87% Q3 impact). While all of the announcements from ( 12.0) ( 9.8)

the banks have been expectedly similar, we flag some differences: i) We interpret both

MING and SBNOR as saying that a full 25 bps-repricing of mortgages will be put through

on average, while the remainder have largely stuck to an ‘up to’-wording. ii) Both MING

and SPOL have announced that new loan rates will not be priced higher until July either P/B’26E vs. ROE’27E

(i.e. simultaneously with the existing stock), which is unusual, and although unlikely to

move earnings, it signals a slightly sharper competitive positioning. P/B'26E

1.80x

Retail competition likely impacted by aggressive standard banks near-term 1.70x

Both anecdotes and official data indicate that some smaller banks have been growing NONG

1.60x SBNORand continue to outgrow the overall retail market. Norges Bank noted in its Financial

Stability report released 12 May that standard banks drove more than 40% of retail 1.50x RING DNB

market growth, despite holding only ~25% market share. This growth has accelerated SPOL

substantially following CRR3 implementation and the lower risk weights for low-to- 1.40x

moderate LTV mortgages for standard approach banks. Pricing is naturally the tool to 1.30x SPOG MORG SB1NO MING

attract volumes, as some of these banks have grown by ~15-20% y/y in Q1'26 while still