Wartsila "Due a breather after a sprint, d/g to Neutral" (Neutral) Weier

Research evidence excerpt

Wartsila "Due a breather after a sprint, d/g to Neutral" (Neutral) Weier

er growth and pricing. It aims for an

operating margin of 3-5% in Energy Storage, it achieved 3.5% last year and we see it achieving 4%

by 2030E. However, we expect a strategic update on this division before the CMD.

UBS VIEW Following the strong performance of the shares since July last year, we see a more balanced risk/

reward and now rate it Neutral. Upside risks include investors' positioning/sentiment, short-term DC

orders and pricing while downside risks include peaking AI-power sentiment, more DC competition,

peak cruise vessel orders and the storage unit.

EVIDENCE We think there is some evidence for major delays in DC construction starts as potential early signs of

the boom starting to mature (link). A potentially more competitive environment in DCs is evidenced

by the capacity announcements of various engine competitors such as Caterpillar (link) and Cummins

(link) as well as a more coordinated push into the market by other engine players such as Hyundai

(link) and Weichai (link) as well as recent fuel cell wins (link).

WHAT´S PRICED IN? We think the shares have fully discounted current consensus estimates. It has not fully priced the new

capacity announcement of a further 30% increase and continuous short-term datacenter-driven

order beats. The market also only discounts moderate pricing power. Equally, the shares do not price

a material slowing in datacenter orders and a more intense competitive environment in the next

years.

Upside/Downside

Spectrum

Core fair EV/EBIT Storage value/ Valuedrivers Core value/share DC value/share Navy value/share

(2027E) share

€56 upside €33 17.5x €18 €4 €1

€40 base €29 15.0x €8 €2 €1

€26 downside €21 10.5x €4 €1 €0

Source: UBS estimates